Vancouver Island Rail Locomotive Retrofit Project: Probabilistic Cost–Benefit Analysis

Yash Patel

ASU

October 2025

This paper presents a multi-layered cost–benefit analysis (CBA) of retrofitting Vancouver Island’s 225 km dormant rail corridor with Battery-Electric Multiple Units (BEMUs). Using a sequential modeling framework built over fourteen weeks, the study integrates deterministic financial modeling, expanded environmental and social benefits, and probabilistic risk simulations. Deterministic results yield a baseline Benefit– Cost Ratio (BCR) of 1.15, while the probabilistic model produces a mean BCR of 1.18 and Net Present Value (NPV) of CAD 12.6 million. Monte Carlo simulation (1,000 iterations) indicates an 80% likelihood of positive NPV outcomes. By quantifying emissions savings, accessibility equity, and uncertainty, this study demonstrates that a BEMU retrofit aligns strongly with British Columbia’s CleanBC 2030 targets and Sustainable Development Goals 9 and 11.